In many ways, retail for Holiday 2025 will look a lot like 2024, with a number of trends remaining the same and even accelerating. That is, of course, if retailers figure out the ever- changing tariff situation in time to put goods on the shelves.
Managing retail in a volatile period was a major focus of CBIZ’s “Consumer Products & Retail Symposium,” held in Los Angeles in late April.
“Holiday 2025 will be a lot like Holiday 2024, with one major exception — the election,” said keynote speaker Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana. “Black Friday will be the same, Cyber Monday will be the same. But you have to have newness. Without newness, you won’t have growth. This was the biggest mistake during COVID. We had nothing new and exciting. We must engage consumers.”
Despite the turmoil, there are positive signs for retail sales overall.
“There are opportunities out there,” Cohen said. “Darn right there are.”
Five years post-COVID-19 shutdowns, it’s time for consumers to replace purchases made back then — and small appliance sales have risen 3%. This bodes well for certain electronics, such as televisions and active apparel. In addition, the beauty business is now appealing to a surprising new consumer.
“What does the average eight- to 14-year-old want? A Sephora gift card,” Cohen observed. “They have a beauty regime that’s unbelievable, and manufacturers are marketing anti-aging skin care to eight-year-olds.”
Even so, retailers are in the midst of a perfect storm, with tariffs joining consumer trends such as higher debt and rising credit card delinquencies as areas of concern, Cohen observed.
“The last person to respond to a tariff is the consumer,” he reminded the audience. “The more we spend on food, the less we have to spend on discretionary general merchandise.”
Tariffs not only could increase the price of merchandise itself, but even individual components such as gift boxes, or equipment that could manufacture items in the U.S., other speakers said.
“I thought trade agreements were holy,” said Robert Krieger, president and CEO of Krieger Worldwide, a domestic and international logistics firm. “POTUS thinks he can rip them up. We’ll find out in 10 to 15 years.”
For some sectors, lower tariffs will have a negligible impact — a $100 dress will still sell at $120, Cohen said. In addition, retailers are telling suppliers their limits on pricing, and if a manufacturer won’t meet it, they will find another source.
“A lot will have to be absorbed inside,” Cohen said.
Chinese retailers Temu and Shein may need to warehouse goods in the U.S. because of tariffs. Younger consumers are visiting wholesale clubs, dividing the bulk items to achieve the savings without the storage needs.
A bigger concern is the toy industry — 75% of goods sold in the U.S. come from China.
“I’m concerned right this second,” said Brian Kessler, founder and president of Maui Toys, and an inventor and consultant who works with multiple retailers around the world. “To have products on the shelves for Christmas, you must ship between now and May.”
Otherwise, consumers will face empty shelves or higher prices. Apparel maker Buck Mason has several contingency plans in place, the result of a 2018 commitment to eliminate manufacturing in China.
“We are still exposed in other countries, but we are cautiously optimistic,” said Tim Johnson, Buck Mason CFO.
The result has been a delay in orders — major discounters are delaying placing beauty product orders, risking shortages for holiday, said Linda Wang, founder and CEO of Karuna Skin and Avatara Personal Care, a maker of affordable South Korean skin care. None of her ingredients come from China, and even if a different component is involved — say, the sheet part of a sheet mask — it comes through South Korea, she explained.
But timing is everything. Items that must be shipped in September for holiday shelf appearances must start manufacturing shortly.
“Stay calm, stay informed, say involved,” Wang said. “Always have different solutions mapped out.”
Krieger noted that it’s important for suppliers to protect their shelf space with their clients.
“If you lose it, you may not get it back,” he observed.
The key challenge for anyone in the business right now is consistency, as information changes day by day.
“It’s very difficult to stay informed,” Krieger said. “We all get directives from the White House, then Customs gets it and it’s up to interpretation.”
“I believe there needs to be a clear direction from the White house in the next 14 days,” Kessler said. “We don’t have 75 days.”
In the end, whether it’s a supplier dealing with a retailer, or store helping a shopper, the advice is the same.
“You need to stay close to your customers,” Krieger said. “Understanding their needs and explaining the reality is important.”
