Despite economic uncertainty amid shifting federal policies, LightBox, a leading provider of commercial real estate (CRE) data and technology, reported a sharp rise in its February 2025 LightBox CRE Activity Index, which climbed to 96.1, up from 80.7 in January and 75.8 a year ago. This is an increase of 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year.
“February’s sharp rise underscores the resilience of CRE deal-making, despite an evolving policy landscape and broader economic uncertainty,” said Manus Clancy, head of data strategy at LightBox. “Investors and lenders are navigating selective opportunities as they weigh the impact of interest rate policy, government budget changes and tariff shifts.”
The LightBox CRE Activity Index tracks commercial property listings, environmental due diligence (Phase I ESA volume) and valuation activity, functions that support CRE transactions and collectively serve as a leading indicator of deal activity. The index is normalized to account for variations in the number of business days per month, providing a consistent measure of market trends.
According to the report commentary, the 20-point year-over-year gain suggests a more active lending and investment environment, approaching the September 2024 high of 98.2, a surge fueled by the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut. February’s increase was reflective of a:
- 20% rise in environmental due diligence activity
- 17% uptick in commercial property appraisal demand
- 19% increase in properties listed on the LightBox platform
Recent deals highlighted in the report show that capital is still flowing to well-located assets, including high-quality offices, data centers, shopping centers and multifamily investments in growth markets. The U.S. office sector is stabilizing, with sales up 20% in early 2025. Leasing growth has neared 30% in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Chicago, with even stronger gains in Dallas, Seattle, and Atlanta. Return-to-office mandates are fueling demand as occupiers gain confidence in long-term commitments. Meanwhile, apartment transactions remained strong in February, with capital targeting markets poised for rent growth potential.
The report commentary notes that while February’s CRE Activity Index signaled strong momentum in lending and investment activity, market sentiment is turning more cautious as concerns over government job cuts and shifting tariff policies take hold.
“Rising economic and political uncertainty is creating headwinds for the market,” said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. “The next few months will be critical. If economic barometers on inflation or the labor market raise recessionary fears, we could see a decline in market confidence that could, in turn, dampen the strong leasing and investment activity that we’ve seen so far this year.:
