As we enter fall, let’s focus on what we’ve learned as we emerge into a coping-with-COVID-19 world. Landlords must track these trends carefully, especially as we head into the critical holiday selling season.
Supply Chains Matter
We lived through the Great Toilet Tissue and Paper Towel Panic of spring 2020, and we still cope with sporadic shortages of commonplace items we took for granted. (Try finding a scallion in southern Queens in April, or salt in northern Queens in July.) It appears that is continuing to some degree. For ongoing needs, retailers will have to figure out how to get enough stock — otherwise, shoppers will figure out their own solutions.
Doing It Ourselves
Whether consciously or not, people stuck at home with limited access even to basic goods have been making some interesting purchases. AeroGrow reported record revenue in the fourth quarter ended June 30, as many of us decided to grow some of our own food. A nifty tactic from the company: when it was sold out of a particular model, one click sent you straight to Kohl’s website, which was in stock and shipped within days. The result: I added four AeroGardens to an existing one in April and spent the summer happily munching salad I grew in my Queens dining room. I clearly wasn’t alone.
Similarly, people crafted, with yarn websites posting record increases. Lion Brand sales rose 80% during COVID-19, capitalizing on brand loyalty and a huge social media base. We Are Knitters, a Madrid-based online store that sells kits designed to help people learn the skill (as well as individual supplies), saw sales rise by 270% in the U.S. in March.
Rediscovering Home
Home is no longer “where the heart is.” It is where business, school and entertainment are, too. Lowe’s and Home Depot’s sales remained solid as people realized what they needed to improve their homes for 24/7 occupancy, bought plants — and learned that they also sell paper towels. It wasn’t surprising at all that, when TJX Cos. reopened its stores (it doesn’t do much business online), shoppers flocked to purchase home goods. To keep children entertained indoors, they also bought toys, with year-over-year sales from March 15 through April 18 rising 19%, said NPD Group. (Easter took place between those dates in both 2019 and 2020, so was not a factor.) One reason why department stores have struggled: they conceded home goods and toys to specialty and discount stores decades ago.
“Experiences” Go Back to the Future
Diners in New York, shuttered malls around the U.S. and Walmart stores in New Jersey have recreated drive-ins in parking lots. Using safety protocols, put on an event or expanded outdoor dining area in a parking lot. If Disney World can reopen in a modified manner with safe distancing (whether they make money is to be seen), why can’t you?
Maybe the Suburbs Are OK After All
Many people I’ve spoken with, at different levels of their careers, left Manhattan, at least for a while. Senior executives and/or their families decamped to weekend homes in Connecticut, Long Island or down the Jersey Shore for more space. Young professionals scattered around the country, going home to parents or other relatives to avoid working on a kitchen counter or sofa. Guess where they’re shopping? Suburban essential retailers. COVID-19 could reverse a decades-long trend of urbanization: suddenly, the idea of cramped public transit and crowded bars, restaurants and fitness facilities isn’t as appealing to families. They may follow their parents’ tradition of moving to a larger home with a backyard. The retailers already in the suburbs have a tremendous opportunity to reconnect with these shoppers.
The Old Normal Isn’t Coming Back
When a COVID-19 treatment is found and a vaccine is created, we will find a new normal. We did after 9/11 and are used to armed security in subways, having bags searched in public buildings and taking off our shoes to board a plane. We’ll eat and drink in restaurants. We’ll go to cinemas, because from the earliest days of civilization, people have gathered around flickering lights with one basic request: Tell me a story.
Will the new normal come close to the “old” normal? Perhaps. But we’ll have new retail names, and maybe a new ethos, one focused on satisfying needs before wants; knowing the thrill of making “it” (whatever “it” is) ourselves sometimes; and cherishing moments and people rather than accumulating stuff.
Let’s see. Wear a mask so we can all find out.
Debra Hazel
Debra Hazel Communications
Arverne, NY 11692
debra@debrahazelcommunications.com
201-618-5247
