In my last article for the Fashion Mannuscript, “E-commerce’s Great Leap Forward,” I wondered about the post-pandemic future of the fashion industry, which, as we all know, suffered greatly during the pandemic.
In addition to having 50 years of experience in the industry, I teach university students who are from all over the U.S., as well as from China and France, among other nations. Since the pandemic is a mission-critical subject for marketing, we discussed its effects on business at length.
The students had their own predictions of and plans for the fashion industry — and their own wardrobes. They responded to my questions passionately. Their answers since last spring, when we were forced into isolation, remained perceptive. Last spring, a very few months after the pandemic lockdowns started, my students and I sensed the significant (sometimes catastrophic) emotional toll that the pandemic would exact on isolated people would be unprecedentedly traumatic. Like soldiers exposed to battle trauma, the pandemic has caused extreme reactions from emotional stress.
So it is with fashion. We know that the fashion industry suffered unprecedented losses, some as much as 80% of sales. With lockdowns, people didn’t go to office and couldn’t meet friends. Every day was nearly the same, so why would people wear anything but what they wore yesterday? When there was online shopping, it was not for wardrobe-building but for sanity.
Work from home, which was the only way to continue business activities during the pandemic, furthered this casual attitude toward clothing. When you are working alone, and there is nobody to see you or to impress; the same old P.J.s, hoodie or T-shirt will do.
Even if you had the impulse to make a purchase of any sort during the pandemic, you did it online. The Economist reported in January on a study by McKinsey from May 2020 which claimed online business in the U.S. had “10 years’ growth in three months.” Everybody who could, did switch over to e-business — even doctors.
Online shopping, which hovered at about 15% of retail sales in 2019 and early 2020, went from important to the default. Will this knee-jerk reaction of shopping online first last long after the pandemic has subsided? The Economist reported in the same piece that 75% to 83% of U.S. customers intended to continue the same behavior, joined by 72% to 81% in China and the same range in other industrialized, countries like Italy and Japan.
Does that mean that, even after the all-clear is sounded, customers will continue their self-isolation and complete their shopping alone? No.
First, let me get one thing out of the way: customers, whether for the fashion industry or other shopping, will never go back to what they did before. This disease made its mark, among many other things, on the shopping habits of humanity.
Before we predict what will happen in the fashion industry, we should predict human behavior post-pandemic and what will and won’t change. As this is a critical issue for marketing, I have spent a lot of time since last spring discussing this topic with my students; my opinion formed around what I thought was going to happen, their input and what they said they personally would do. That was the most enlightening part of the discussion — we may not be able to predict what the market will do with any degree of certainty, but we can be sure, after a year of isolation, what we will do as customers.
I also make these predictions on the premise that we don’t need clothes. There is enough in most people’s closets, so these assumptions are based on what consumers want.
Everyone I have talked to — students in the U.S., Europe and Asia, as well as peers here — is passionately longing for interaction with friends, family and anyone who passes the screen test. Being in a controlled public environment and feeling the energy of people together is rejuvenating to the spirit. One article in The Economist in February points to the fact that humans need touch for emotional satisfaction.
Here are some of the questions I asked, specifically regarding fashion purchases:
Will you shop online or in physical stores after the all-clear is given?
Due to the scar of the pandemic, wandering in a store is not as attractive as it used to be, but for the fashion business, which is high-touch and which benefits from trying on, physical shopping is preferred, and this experience will be refreshed with new vigor and satisfaction. What is better than seeing yourself in a mirror with a new outfit and someone — your family, friend a salesperson — saying, “You look marvelous, darling?”
When you buy new clothes, will you want more of the casual style that you got used to at home?
No. One student said that she hated her clothes which she had to wear for the last year and intended to throw them out — and with them, the memories. Everyone I polled said something along the lines of, “I will dress up more, because I want to feel good and look good;” “My clothing worn to work will reflect my desire for self-respect and recognition, which is hard to come by with work from home;” “I may build a multi-layered wardrobe, with home, casual, out-to-dinner and work clothes;” and “I will not look for fast, disposable, cookie-cutter fashion, but quality, individual clothes I can be proud of and wear for a longer time, even if I have to pay more.”
How much will you spend, and what will you add to your wardrobe?
Many people said they would clothes that make them feel good — as many as it takes. No matter whether they bought online, physical or omnichannel, people are eager to shop. Nobody that I questioned brought up any financial constraints. Even if they exist, which I am sure they do, they are not the driving force. They never ever said that they would only buy a few pieces to supplement what they have. Almost all envisioned a “new look.”
I was also surprised to find that everyone talked about color in their wardrobes. Both men and women pointed out without any prompting that they would seek out clothing with bright colors to reflect the lightness in their mood and the receptivity for new contact.
With this informal survey, I do see some opportunities that have not existed in the industry for a while. First, the fashion industry could be a source of personal stimulation and fulfillment, as clothing becomes more central to people’s lives and self-assessment. When bell bottom jeans were the rage in the 1970s, you felt great about yourself if you could prance around in the latest pair and pretty ragged if you didn’t or couldn’t. This has not been the case in a very long time, even before the pandemic.
The fashion industry, which has been in the “denim era” since Reagan was president, may begin to successfully create some new trends. This, of course, will drive business of those who recognize the trends and those who create the trends. They could revive businesses that have been dormant, such as dress shirts. Trends are the healthiest probiotic for the fashion industry. In 1947, when Dior introduced his New Look after a fashion hiatus for WWII, it led the trends for fashion well into the 1960s. Wouldn’t it be exciting if history repeated itself? Will we all be wearing shirts, ties, hats and cinch-waist A-line dresses?
The most exciting news is that, in the past, fashion was spread by local and national media (such as TV) and had limited reach due to technological limitations. Today, global platforms can spread the word and the product literally everywhere. With global reach comes global trends.
I am not sure of the magnitude of the outcome. What I am 100% sure of, from my own experience and research, is that people’s desire for company, interaction and hugs is intense. Humans are social animals who have been kept in a cage for about a year. Like birds, we will value our plumage as a component of our self-esteem. Once released, people all over the world are going to be ultra-attentive to what they are wearing and spend what they need to be fulfilled. Release them and see what happens.
