Are we doomed to dress sloppily forever? There is no doubt that the pandemic took a grave toll on apparel — maybe more than any other industry. Of all retail sectors, apparel and accessories have suffered the most, diving almost 100% last year and still seriously in deficit, according to The Economist.
From a peak of about $34 billion in November 2019 pre-Christmas, sales sunk to about $7 billion in May 2020 and only could recover to about $30 billion at Christmas 2020, after operating in serious deficit for almost a year, The Economist also reported. The kids didn’t get new clothes, either; family clothing stores followed the same trend — but worse. The nadir in May 2020 was about $700 million from a peak of almost $15 billion.
Some major companies did well during this period, and some did not. The common denominator for those who saw increases seemed to be comfort. Crocs are an example. You don’t wear those to the office or on a date. Moccasins and Hush Puppies also fared better than you might expect.
So, is dressing up dead? Will we all wear sweats and hoodies to dinner or a meeting? My answer to that is no. My informal poll of nearly 100 students from the U.S. and other countries begs to differ.
My students will happily shed their hoodies and sweatshirts to dress up when person-to-person and person-to-group interactions are permitted and safe, they said. They were nearly unanimous about that. One student went so far as to say she felt like she would throw out her entire wardrobe. Bright colors and happy clothes that actually fit (and don’t make you feel like taking a nap) will come roaring back.
Those of us who have experience in the world of retail (pre-pandemic and pre-e-commerce) and have a good merchant’s sense of incoming trends all agree that the lack of buying clothes for a year (except online) will have a snapback some are calling “The Roaring 20s.” We expect to see not only wardrobe additions but whole wardrobe replacements.
I believe we are going to see a new attitude toward dressing that has been in remission since the jeans craze of the 1980s and subsequent approval for casual dress in offices (because the boss wanted to wear jeans too). No, we won’t have dress codes to wear a tie and suit to work as we did in the 1970s; if there is any code to come, it may be that offices set limits on how sloppy you can look.
The real trend will be a reaction to the pandemic, when people began to recognize that a sloppy you is not your ideal presentation to the world. In fact, it is pretty embarrassing.
This revolution will also be a quality revolution. Renewed pride in your appearance will require that your clothes don’t look cheap; this will spell trouble for those purveyors of disposable clothes like Inditex and H&M (I have complete faith that they will respond, but it may take some time and rocky roads).
One more blow to the fast-fashion brands will be that people will not want to look just like the person next to them; we will likely see a drive for individualism in apparel, a definite departure from the cookie-cutter fashion that ruled the world pre-pandemic.
We merchants have a solemn responsibility to not only spot the fashion trends — fit, silhouette, fabric — but to also figure out the right color for each garment. There could be few worst disasters than having thousands of the right style in the wrong color. So here I go with another risky prediction, one which I have said before: bright colors can do the best job of externalizing our psyche and will have the most robust response, both physical and online.
None of this is written in stone, and world events could easily get in the way of these predictions (especially if pandemic conditions linger longer than expected and people stay home). But I think, all things considered, my predictions are accurate — including my feeling that sweatpants will be on their way back out again.
The biggest threat is when retailers get lazy or lack vision, thus failing to prepare the inventory when the customer wants it or blindly following the pandemic trend as if it were going to last forever. Google sweatpants, and you will see that everyone from designer to mass market is rushing to compete in the market of sweats.
For those of us who have the right merchandise at the right time, it is the Roaring 20s.
Michael Serwetz teaches in the International Trade and Marketing Department at the Fashion Institute of Technology (FIT) and at New York University’s Division of Business Programs. He is the co-founder of Lotus & Michael and the author of a forthcoming book on Chinese-American relations and trade. His other work can be found on his blog, isourcerer.com.
