Logistics platform Tradlinx has released its report, “2026 Global Ocean Logistics Outlook.” The report characterizes 2026 as “The Great Recalibration,” in which slow trade growth and structural overcapacity are overshadowed by three new variables: AI, energy and tariffs.
According to World Trade Organization data, the report projects global merchandise trade growth of around 0.5% in 2026. On the supply side, a record 10 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of new vessels will continue entering service, reinforcing overcapacity. Tradlinx estimates container demand growth of 2.5%-3.5% will not fully absorb supply growth above 3%, an imbalance that could push spot rates up to 25% lower than in 2025. A potential normalization of Red Sea diversions is flagged as a wild-card factor that could further reduce effective vessel demand by about 10%.
The report argues that in 2026, supply chain strategy will shift from “lowest cost” to “new risk management,” centered on tariffs, energy and AI. Tariff hikes and trade barriers—ranked the No. 2 operational risk at 48%—are slowing industrial output and accelerating the regionalization of supply chains. Rising power demand from AI is making energy reliability the top factor in logistics site selection (No. 1 at 40%), surpassing labor costs (36%). AI is also the No. 1 investment priority for 2026 (75%), yet it has a dual role: amplifying energy risk while acting as the only strategic solution capable of modeling these complex variables.
The report describes an “Ocean Paradox,” with cheaper freight but weaker reliability as carriers lean on blank sailings and slow steaming. In air freight, cost-sensitive cargo may shift to ocean, while high-value goods such as AI semiconductors remain in the skies. Inland transport faces pressure from ocean volatility and route changes, including emerging North-South nearshoring corridors.
Park Min-gyu, CEO of Tradlinx, said, “The survival strategy for 2026 is to reinvest savings from lower ocean rates into managing the new structural risks—AI, energy and tariffs. Companies must move beyond disconnected planning and adopt AI-driven scenario planning to navigate the year’s complex uncertainties.”
