Visa released its “Global Economic Outlook” report for 2026, revealing that while headline growth appears steady at 2.7%, the global economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by artificial intelligence adoption, evolving trade networks and shifting investment patterns.
Analysis from Visa Business and Economic Insights shows that beneath the surface of stable GDP growth, three powerful forces are rewiring the structure of global commerce: generative AI acceleration, supply chain fragmentation and demographic pressures.
“What appears to be an ‘average’ year is actually a period of profound economic transformation,” said Visa’s chief economist, Wayne Best. “Consumer spending remains solid, providing a stable foundation, while business investment accelerates to drive the next phase of expansion. The economy is being fundamentally rebuilt by AI, new trade patterns and digital innovation.”
Key findings:
- Steady growth masks structural transformation: Global GDP is projected to grow 2.7% in 2026, down slightly from 2.9% in 2025. While headline figures suggest continuity, three structural forces are reshaping the economy: geonomics displacing globalization, generative AI accelerating across sectors and population aging pressuring growth. The composition and drivers of economic expansion are changing rapidly beneath this surface stability.
- Investment accelerates as consumption moderates: Consumer spending remains resilient at 2.4% growth in 2026, moderating from 2.7% in 2025, while inflation eases from 3.4% to 3.1%. Business investment is accelerating, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and declining policy uncertainty, offsetting the consumption slowdown. This shift from consumption-led to investment-led growth should support commercial payments as business activity resumes.
- Supply chains rewire; trade patterns fragment: Intraregional trade now drives two-thirds of global trade growth as supply chains shorten and companies broaden supplier bases in response to tariffs and de-risking mandates. This restructuring is fueling business travel growth, particularly in mining and technology, and driving faster recovery in cross-border commercial payments versus domestic corporate payments.
- GenAI adoption transforms small-business competition: Small businesses now adopt generative AI faster than consumers, with AI-integrating firms showing significantly higher transaction growth. This technology enables lean teams to achieve scale previously requiring much larger workforces, potentially redefining what it means to be a “small business.” While North American tech hubs lead in absolute adoption, faster growth abroad suggests global markets may produce the next wave of AI-driven business models.
The baseline forecast of 2.7% GDP growth reflects resilient fundamentals: stable consumer spending, accelerating business investment and continued AI adoption across sectors, balanced against policy uncertainties and demographic pressures.
“The global economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025 despite significant policy changes,” Best said. “As we enter 2026, the pace of structural transformation is accelerating, creating challenges and opportunities. Organizations that combine timely insights with operational agility will be best positioned to navigate this evolving landscape and capitalize on growth drivers like AI adoption and evolving trade networks.”
