Sales of new single-family homes fell 10.5% month-over-month during July, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The average sales price of new homes sold in July was up 4.1% from the previous month and 5.4% from a year ago.
Below, you’ll find commentary about the latest new residential sales data from Maor Greenberg, co-founder and CEO of Spacial, an AI-powered structural engineering platform for residential construction, and a 19-year veteran of the construction and real estate industries.
- On where the pullback is concentrated: “If anything, the data shows that the pullback was spread out. The average sales price is up 5.4% from a year ago, and sales over $1 million held flat at 3,000 units in both June and July. The bigger drop was in the middle: sales in the $500,000-$600,000 range fell from 8,000 to 5,000. I’d also be careful with the 10.5% headline sales decline. The margin of error around that number is 14%, so I wouldn’t make too much of it.”
- Midwestern signals?: “The Midwest is probably the more interesting part of the report. Sales were 87,000 in July 2025, and 43,000 in July 2026. That’s roughly a 50% decline in a year, and it’s the only regional number here where the decline falls outside the margin for error.”
- On whether quicker design processes could help the market: “Rates and monthly payments are still the bigger issue, but that’s outside our control. Pipeline efficiency affects what builders can reasonably put on a lot; design, engineering and plan reviews cost roughly the same whether a house sells for $290,000 or $650,000. That’s why the lower end of the market gets squeezed first. Builders can get into the $300,000 to $399,000 range. That’s 34% of sales now, versus 28% in June. But below $300,000, they’re still having trouble building enough homes, and it’s not obviously a lack of demand.”
- What to watch for: “I’d keep an eye on the number of not-started homes for sale. There were 96,000 last July, and 115,000 now, with 9,000 of that increase coming within the past month. Builders are selling houses before they’ve built them, which makes design and permitting part of the path to revenue rather than something that happens in the background. Even if a builder decides today to build smaller homes, design, engineering and plan reviews can take two to three quarters before a home is on the market. So, product mix is always responding to the market late.”
