Sales & Rentals Market Recap

The expectation for July was the resumption of signed contracts. Due to its lagging nature – it usually takes several weeks to go from a new listing to a deal – the market was looking to July for a clue toward overall demand. While the number of contracts signed was certainly an improvement upon the depressed numbers reported for April, May, and June, July’s deal numbers suggest buyers are not returning at normal levels. Instead, demand appears to be down approximately 40% from the typically lower summer seasonal levels.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, July set a record for new listings, with 2,418 units coming to market. Much of this inventory was planned for release during COVID but held back until the re-opening of the market on June 22. As a result, nearly three months of inventory appeared within a few weeks. 

Lastly, during the final week of July, there was a notable increase in listings removed from the market. This is typically due to sellers not getting their price and suggests the much-rumored urgency to exit the city is not as high as anticipated, but that sellers remaining on the market will be more likely to cut prices as time on market increases. In terms of market dynamics, buyers continue to have the upper hand, with listing discounts for deals struck post-COVID hovering in the 10-12% range.

Year-over-Year Summary for July (July 2020 vs July 2019) market activity:

• New Listings: 2,418 (an increase of 129% compared to 1,055 in 2019)
• Contracts Signed: 502 (a decrease of 39% compared to 823 in 2019)
• Taken Off Market: 886 (a decrease of 8% compared to 988 in 2019)

The two red bars are the two values displayed under each chart: July 2019 and July 2020

Year-Over-Year New Listings for the Month of July:

2019: 1,055

2020: 2,418 (+129%)

The two red bars are the two values displayed under each chart: July 2019 and July 2020

Year-Over-Year Contracts Signed for the Month of July:

2019: 823

2020: 502 (-39%)

The two red bars are the two values displayed under each chart: July 2019 and July 2020

Year-Over-Year Taken Off Market for the Month of July:

2019: 966

2020: 886 (-8%)

The two red bars are the two values displayed under each chart: July 2019 and July 2020

Listing Discount for the Month of July:

2019: 7%

2020:  12%

Manhattan Rental Market:

Highlights:

• Highest number of monthly new listings since July of 2017 (+21% month-over-month and +30% year-over-year)
• Lease signed activity still depressed (+59% month-over-month and -34% year-over-year)
• Median rent decreasing (-3% month-over-month and -6% year-over-year)

Pressure on landlords increased in July as the number of new rentals coming on the market continues to outpace the number of leases signed during what is usually considered the busy season. While the number of leases signed increased 59% from June, this was mainly the result of a full month of an open market and is not likely to be repeated in August. The growing overhang of inventory in July led landlords to cut the median asking rent by 3% from June to $3,542 which represents a nearly 7% decrease from pre-pandemic levels. As August gets underway, landlords may have to further discount units in order to further incentivize potential tenants. 

Year-Over-Year Summary for July (2019 vs 2020) market activity:

• New Rental Listings: 6,698 (an increase of 30% compared to 5,146 in 2019)
• Lease Signed: 3,101 (a decrease of 34% compared to 4,675 in 2019)
• Off-Market: 1,353 (an increase of 31% compared to 1,033 in 2019)

 July 2020 Week-to-Week Market Activity Breakdown:

Rentals data source: RLS. Monday to Sunday defines a “week” of data. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR NEW RENTAL LISTINGS

New Listings During the Month of July:

2019: 5,146

2020: 6,698 (+30%)

YEAR-OVER-YEAR NEW LEASE SIGNED/RENTED

Leases Signed During the Month of July:

2019: 4,675

2020: 3,101 (-34%)

YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENTALS TAKEN OFF MARKET

Listings Removed During the Month of July:

2019: 1,033

2020: 1,353 (+31%)

Median Asking Rent for July:

2019: $3,750

2020: $3,542 (-6%)